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# DFS Projection Accuracy Report — Week 1 (2026)
- URL: https://flotsam.ghost.io/dfs-projection-accuracy-report-week-1-2026/
- Published: 2026-09-17T11:26:36.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-17T15:29:51.000Z
- Author: Jeff Higbee
- Tags: DFS, NFL, Analytics, DraftKings

Through Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season, here's how our four projection sources (CBS, FantasyPros, Sleeper, ESPN) performed against actual DraftKings scores — and how those findings are shaping next week's lineup weights.

## Key Takeaways

- **Cbs is the most accurate source** this season (RMSE 6.85 pts) and receives the highest blend weight (1.0).
- **Espn is the least accurate** (RMSE 7.29 pts) and gets down-weighted to 0.94.
- **Cbs over-projects Pass Yds** by 22.4 on average — treat Cbs pass yds numbers with caution heading into Week 2.
- **Cbs over-projects Pass TD** by 0.4 on average — treat Cbs pass td numbers with caution heading into Week 2.
- **Espn over-projects Pass TD** by 0.6 on average — treat Espn pass td numbers with caution heading into Week 2.
- **Fantasypros over-projects Pass TD** by 0.5 on average — treat Fantasypros pass td numbers with caution heading into Week 2.
- **Sleeper under-projects Pass Yds** by 15.2 on average — treat Sleeper pass yds numbers with caution heading into Week 2.
- **Sleeper over-projects Pass TD** by 0.4 on average — treat Sleeper pass td numbers with caution heading into Week 2.

## Overall Source Accuracy

| Source      | RMSE | MAE  | N players | Blend Weight |
| ----------- | ---- | ---- | --------- | ------------ |
| Cbs         | 6.85 | 4.89 | 249       | 1.0          |
| Sleeper     | 7.01 | 5.13 | 298       | 0.978        |
| Fantasypros | 7.13 | 5.22 | 258       | 0.96         |
| Espn        | 7.29 | 5.28 | 249       | 0.94         |

*RMSE = root mean squared error; MAE = mean absolute error; lower is better.*

## Accuracy by Position

| Position | Cbs RMSE    | Sleeper RMSE | Fantasypros RMSE | Espn RMSE   |
| -------- | ----------- | ------------ | ---------------- | ----------- |
| **QB**   | 7.99 (n=34) | 9.16 (n=32)  | 9.35 (n=34)      | 9.27 (n=35) |
| **RB**   | 7.76 (n=68) | 7.73 (n=71)  | 7.38 (n=65)      | 7.62 (n=59) |
| **WR**   | 6.88 (n=85) | 7.05 (n=106) | 7.22 (n=97)      | 7.42 (n=96) |
| **TE**   | 4.76 (n=62) | 5.26 (n=62)  | 5.02 (n=62)      | 5.06 (n=59) |
| **DST**  | —           | 5.16 (n=27)  | —                | —           |

## Stat Category Bias (Mean Error)

Mean error shows the *direction* each source is wrong. Positive = source over-projected; negative = source under-projected. A consistent directional bias is a lineup signal — e.g. if CBS reliably over-projects passing yards, CBS-heavy QB projections are inflated and should be treated with skepticism.

| Stat     | Cbs   | Sleeper | Fantasypros | Espn  |
| -------- | ----- | ------- | ----------- | ----- |
| Pass Att | —     | \-2.6   | —           | —     |
| Pass Cmp | —     | \-1.5   | —           | —     |
| Pass TD  | +0.4  | +0.4    | +0.5        | +0.6  |
| Pass Yds | +22.4 | \-15.2  | \-0.8       | \-3.5 |
| REC      | +0.3  | +0.4    | +0.4        | +0.3  |
| Rec Yds  | +2.4  | +4.0    | +4.0        | +4.0  |
| Rush Att | —     | +0.7    | —           | —     |
| Rush Yds | +3.0  | +3.2    | +2.0        | +1.1  |
| Tgt      | —     | +0.3    | —           | —     |

## Stat Category Magnitude (MAE)

MAE shows how far off projections were on average, regardless of direction.

| Stat     | Cbs  | Sleeper | Fantasypros | Espn |
| -------- | ---- | ------- | ----------- | ---- |
| Pass Att | —    | 6.5     | —           | —    |
| Pass Cmp | —    | 4.5     | —           | —    |
| Pass TD  | 0.7  | 0.8     | 0.9         | 0.9  |
| Pass Yds | 64.5 | 68.8    | 73.4        | 71.4 |
| REC      | 1.3  | 1.3     | 1.3         | 1.2  |
| Rec Yds  | 17.7 | 18.8    | 18.3        | 18.7 |
| Rush Att | —    | 3.2     | —           | —    |
| Rush Yds | 15.1 | 17.7    | 15.8        | 15.9 |
| Tgt      | —    | 1.6     | —           | —    |

*Data through Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season. Accuracy computed across 2 weeks.*