Multi-Source 2026 Fantasy Projections: How the Data Works and Why Positional Variance Beats Raw Points
Averaging five independent projection sources and calculating positional variance vs. the median starter gives you a more honest picture of player value than any single ranking. Here's how it works and how to tune it for your league.
Update: Projections refreshed to 8/15. New version attached
Fantasy football draft season is heating up, and the single biggest mistake managers make is trusting one projection source. Every source has blind spots — a site might love mobile quarterbacks, undervalue PPR running backs, or lag on early training camp news. Averaging across multiple independent sources smooths those biases out and gives you a more reliable baseline for every player on your board.
Here's a breakdown of the five sources powering this year's projections spreadsheet, followed by the concept that I think is actually more useful than raw projected points: positional variance vs. the median starter.
The Data Sources
FantasyPros
FantasyPros aggregates projections from dozens of analysts and publishes a consensus figure — making it arguably the most reliable single number you can get. A free account login is required for full player lists. The script pulls full-season projection stats for QB, RB, WR, TE, K, and DST: passing yards, passing TDs, interceptions, rush yards, rush TDs, receptions, receiving yards, receiving TDs, and DST scoring categories.
Sleeper
Sleeper's public API surfaces per-game projection data scaled to a full season (Week 1 × 17). The advantage is freshness — Sleeper updates quickly on personnel changes and injury news. No authentication required.
CBS Sports
CBS publishes free, true full-season projections for every major skill position, kickers, and defenses. It's the same underlying data that powers Yahoo's preseason player pages (via RotoWire), available without a paywall. Particularly strong for kicker and DST projections.
ESPN Fantasy
ESPN's internal fantasy API exposes 2026 projected season stat totals authenticated with your ESPN account. Built entirely independently from aggregator sources, it's the best cross-check for identifying outlier projections from the other sites.
Yahoo (ADP Only)
Yahoo's projected stats are blocked by their OAuth API preseason — they pull from RotoWire via internal session auth. However, Yahoo's Average Draft Position (ADP) data is included. ADP tells you where the market is pricing each player, which is valuable context even when you disagree with it.
How the Average is Computed
For each stat column, the spreadsheet averages all sources with a non-zero value for that player. Sources missing a player entirely are excluded from that player's average rather than dragging it toward zero. The result is a set of [AVG] columns that feed directly into the projected points formula.
Positional Variance: The Metric That Actually Matters
Fantasy football is played head-to-head. You're not trying to score the most points in the league — you're trying to score more than your opponent this week. That changes how you should think about player value.
Consider two tight ends in a 12-team, 1-TE league. With 12 teams and one TE starter each, there are 12 starting-caliber tight ends. The "median starter" is around the 6th or 7th best TE.
A stud TE projects 240 points. Median TE starter projects 140. The stud's variance: +100
A serviceable TE projects 160 points. Variance: +20
A backup RB projecting 90 points in a 2-RB, 12-team league (median RB starter at 110) has negative variance — starting him actively costs you points on average.
The variance column does this math automatically for every player at every position, tied to your league settings so the median updates when you change team count or roster slots.
Why This Matters for Drafting
Variance reframes position scarcity correctly. A 200-point RB projection in a 2-RB, 12-team league (24 starters) has far smaller variance than the same projection in a 1-RB, 8-team league (8 starters), because the median starter is much higher in the first scenario. This naturally explains why elite TEs and QBs are more valuable in shallow leagues, and why WR depth matters more in 3-WR formats.
Customizing for Your League
The Settings tab is the control panel. Change any value in column B and every projected points and variance formula updates automatically — no re-running the script needed.
Scoring Settings (Rows 2–10)
Pass Yds Pts — default 0.04 (1 pt per 25 yds). Use 0.05 for 20-yd leagues. Pass TD Pts — default 4. Many leagues use 6. INT Pts — default -2. Some use -1. Reception Pts — 1.0 = PPR, 0.5 = half-PPR, 0 = standard. Biggest lever for WR/RB relative value.
Kicker Settings (Rows 13–16)
FG values by distance bracket (0–39, 40–49, 50+) plus extra points. Projected kicker points are weighted by typical kick distribution across those ranges.
DST Settings (Rows 19–31)
Sacks, defensive TDs, turnovers, safeties, and points-allowed brackets. PA scoring is non-linear — shutouts score heavily, 35+ points allowed carries a penalty. Adjust bracket values to match your platform exactly.
League Settings (Rows 34–41)
Teams — number of teams (default 12). QB/RB/WR/TE/K/DST Starters — how many of each you start per week. FLEX Spots — add to RB+WR+TE starter count to set pool depth.
For a 10-team league with 2 WR + 1 FLEX, set Teams=10 and WR Starters=3. The spreadsheet pegs the median WR starter at the 15th/16th projected receiver — the midpoint of 30 starters.
The All Players Tab
The final tab aggregates every player from every position, sorted by projected points descending. Proj Pts and Variance are live formulas — change anything in Settings and the full rankings list updates instantly. Use it as your master big board on draft day.
Happy drafting.
